Here's another thought:
Prove that R+ Social found Karl's posts helpful.
"Although I was never myself comfortable with making decisions when you have 70% of the information, bear in mind that that number as well is not statistically calculated."
Most of the decisions we make in our personal lives are not all that important and even if we are wrong the consequences are not always terribly serious.
In areas such as medicine, things are quite different.
The first story here discusses an unexpected rise in colorectal cancer among young adults. As with most cancers, early detection affords better treatment options and in some cases cures.
This type of new information raises difficult questions: it is really a trend and should the diagnostic protocol by age cohort be changed?
It is especially challenging here since the gold standard diagnostic test, the colonoscopy, is extremely expensive. For officials dealing with limited health budgets, it would be very hard to make choices here. Should limited resources be devoted to further testing in this field or should they continue to be devoted to other programs that would likely have a beneficial impact on a large number of people and for which there is already compelling clinical evidence?
Here is another example of a difficult decision--when to stop CPR.
Very interesting articles. I think the 70% rule needs to be understood in it's context though.
If you were leading the "Ministry of Health" and were asked to make the final decision on CPR guidelines, you might expect your subordinates to have excellent information on the issue, but you yourself have to make a decision when you have enough information from them.
Either telling them to spend another year to collect more data or that you want to deep dive personally into the issue which takes your time away from other important issues, is probably not an option.
Members of this forum seem to view some things as being much more important than others. As of now, there are 2,784 posts in 125 threads or about an average of 22 posts per thread.
The top 10 threads account for almost 50% of all posts. CellNUVO alone accounts for nearly 1/5 of all posts on the forum and is three times bigger than the nearest rival Tello. Indeed it has almost 50% more posts than the next two together (Tello and FreedomPop each of which has 8 times the number of posts of an “average” thread).
So in terms of what that says about us collectively, it seems clear that we have an almost obsessive interest in CellNUVO and an inordinate interest in other inexpensive or “free” services.
As to what that says about us on the individual level, statistics cannot offer any answer. That is really something to take up with a licensed therapist.
As to what that says about us on the individual level, statistics cannot offer any answer. That is really something to take up with a licensed therapist.
I'm not so sure about the therapist part. For 18 years I played tennis twice a week with with a licensed therapist, and after spending so much competitive time together, he concluded that I needed therapy and I concluded that licenses are given to just about anyone.
Mr Berra, an expert, was good at pointing out the conundrums of statistics: “Baseball is 90 per cent mental. The other half is physical.” “You give 100 per cent in the first half of the game, and if that isn’t enough in the second half you give what’s left.” :whistle:
"For 18 years I played tennis twice a week with with a licensed therapist, and after spending so much competitive time together, he concluded that I needed therapy"
You must be an exceedingly complex case if that amount of time was required for a seasoned professional to formulate such a view.
People I encounter, even those who are not experts in the field of therapy, appear to be able to conclude with certainty that I need it after just chatting for a few minutes. Those who know me better feel it would not help.
[quote="Oldbooks1"
You must be an exceedingly complex case if that amount of time was required for a seasoned professional to formulate such a view.
People I encounter, even those who are not experts in the field of therapy, appear to be able to conclude with certainty that I need it after just chatting for a few minutes. Those who know me better feel it would not help.
[/quote]
Oh, the wisdom of strangers and friends.
No not exceedingly complex: the therapist was just slow, and I'm not talking about tennis. Sport has a wayof bringing the truth to the fore in people.
I was a little surprised (shocked actually) to see a posting on the FCC website of testimony by Commissioner Clayburn before a Senate Committee in which the Commissioner commented on the fact that only 1/3 of consumers were "very" or "completely satisfied with their home internet, pay TV or telephone service. The Commissioner stated:
"As a Commissioner at the agency responsible for overseeing the communications sector, this is highly alarming."
Leaving aside the infelicity of language, it is beyond comprehension that tax dollars are being spent to pay the salary of someone who believes that data from a survey from Consumer Reports is a reliable basis on which to formulate policy.
Of course, that may be a trivial waste compared to the story in the Washington Post which describes how economists are hopeless at forecasting. The study comes from a reliable source, the Federal Reserve, which itself both makes and uses such forecasts which simultaneously acknowledging they are not worth the paper they are printed on. These are the same gurus who have been pursuing the low-interest policy for a decade based on their secret "interpretation" of forecasts they acknowledge. If this were on SNL nobody would believe it.
As tax day is now only a little over a month away it is rather discouraging to see how our money is being wasted by these charlatans.
"You knew it all along: Economists can’t forecast the economy worth a hoot. And now we have a scholarly study that confirms it. Better yet, the corroboration comes from an impeccable source: the Federal Reserve.
The study compared predictions of important economic indicators — unemployment, inflation, interest rates, gross domestic product — with the actual outcomes. There were widespread errors. The study concluded that “considerable uncertainty surrounds all macroeconomic projections.”"
Well, I would not be surprised if the majority of folks are not satisfied with cable / internet. For rural folks, it's always way more expensive and slower. For urban folks, cable is so high these days. Many younger folks don't like the bundles, and, are going cable free. Reliable source for data?, different question, but, I think it's highly likely that claim is close to correct. Sure is for me. In the area of the country where I live, a plain DSL line, as in low speed by modern standards, with taxes, $93 per month. Which is why I cancelled it and went with Microwave internet (WISP). Faster and a little cheaper.
Economic forecasts are essentially useless, I totally agree with the story. I have followed them for decades. Large numbers might say how rosy things are, large numbers will say looks gloomy (in simplistic terms). Sometimes, they mostly agree things look great or lousy, and, then something changes, a new law, whatever. Few are right more than a couple of times. There's simply little way to do better as world and domestic events can massively affect the forecast. After the election, I heard many predictions the market would tank, and in fact, the news that day was saying how futures were way down, etc. Of course, those were likely tainted political opinions and not true data based observations. But still, this makes it appear, even if not true, that it is indeed true that economic forecasts are no better than a monkey throwing darts. You yourself have stated that the general consensus is the stock market has no barriers for the next year at least, but, admitted it depends. I would agree. We have no control over external events. And we can not predict the future. Stats might be useful, but, there are so many factors outside the facts considered. How could it possibly be any better for an economic forecast? I realize the govt needs to try and do so for budgeting purposes.
The true charlatans in the govt are the ones who for decades have been spending money like it was not theirs. Which makes sense because it isn't!
If someone asked you to imagine the most boring job in the world it might take you a while to come with an answer.
Chances are it would be something like the following: compiling economic statistics for the government.
That is probably a good bet but, like all bets, there is no sure thing.
Here the exception is doing it for the Greek government.
The Greek government’s ongoing attempts to imprison Andreas Georgiou will reshape the Greek economy — in ways that may last for decades. Georgiou is a statistician who’s been accused by the government of inflating data on the size of the Greek deficit. He’s awaiting trial — for telling the truth about the Greek economy.
Georgiou has been acquitted in four trials since 2011, most recently in December. Greek politicians are still pushing the case, which is now at the Greek Supreme Court. Georgiou appears to be a convenient scapegoat for Greek politicians trying to avoid blame for their country’s ongoing financial crisis
[see attached article from the Washington Post]
Ideological madness!
Fortunately we don't have that problem.
Well, everybody should now feel very comfortable about the FCC.
It getting into the business of statistical analysis in order to make better decisions.
As Chairman Pai points out if data won the World Series for the Cubs after such a long drought, the sky is the limit on the possibilities for a quantitatively-oriented FCC.
Commissioner O'Rielly issued a statement in support of the initiative.
Oldbooks1--"As Chairman Pai points out if data won the World Series for the Cubs after such a long drought, the sky is the limit on the possibilities for a quantitatively-oriented FCC."
What of Occam's razor? Perhaps it just took the Cubs a long time to form a team with enough talent to win the World Series. I might add that my Dad was a statistician and coach of my Little league team. Statistics are statistics are statistics.
Steve Balmer just launched a new website that makes it easy to get an overview of government activities in the US and to drill down and explore topics in detail. It is very easy to use and provides an easy way to find information in one place.
Looks promising. I suppose the government did not have the funds to create a website like this. Perhaps it did well to leave it to someone in the private sector with the money and wherewithal to get it done.
I have been quite impressed. It is by far the neatest tool on the web for anyone trying to explore government activities at all levels in the US. There are quite detailed methodology notes and links to data sources.
One of the things it does is present the equivalent of a 10-K which is a novel concept in this area. It had been talked about for a long time but, as you say, public funds were never available for this purpose.
It seems things have now reached the point that even if the debate over the size of the crowd at the Inauguration in January has not been resolved, there is a new debate over the size of the crowd at yesterday's celebration of the Patriots' SuperBowl victory at the White House. One would think that in this day and age we would not still be discussing whether such things are being counted correctly or not.
Patriots fire back at New York Times over photo comparison of Trump, Obama White House trips [ Washington Post]
Be that as it may, here on the forum at least we have good statistics. While the pace of posting has slowed, the forum should soon record its 5,000 post.
With 211 topics listed one would expect the average topic to have around 24 replies. It turns out that CellNUVO currently has 1, 274 or more than 25% of all replies. Not merely is this a statistical anomaly for a general purpose forum, it is so far off the charts that it suggests the subject is way beyond a "topic" and probably more in the category of a subject better classified by a discipline other than statistics.:unsure:
***Concerning the CellNuvo stats: free(?) cell phone service is hard to compete with. After the time in the wilderness of supposedly free phone service known as R+ and the plethora of problems that led to the death of R+, the enthusiasm for CellNuvo is understandable. The lure of continually increasing the amount of free stuff or free phone use is almost irresistible. Swipe on.
As has been mentioned many times statistics need to taken with a grain (at least) of salt.
In the world of statistics, polling data are certainly at the "least reliable" end of the spectrum. A further complication is that most users do not review the methodology employed but rely on analysis of pundits, few, if any of whom, are in any way qualified to offer informed opinions on the numbers themselves.
That being said, the survey results published in the Washingon Post today are stark, especially in the context of the current situation.
The president’s approval rating stands at 42 percent, the lowest recorded at this stage of a presidency dating to Dwight Eisenhower. .
A new study puts the plight of the middle class in the US in recent years in a broader context.
Here are two major takeaways:
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From 1991 to 2010, the middle class expands in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, but, as in the United States, shrinks in Germany, Italy and Spain
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The U.S. is the only country in which fewer than six-in-ten adults were in the middle class.
Fixing the "problem" is certainly going to be a lot more challenging that the leading proponents of "plans" from either side of the aisle would have voters believe.
